Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board
- Prior was 104.1 (revised to 103.5)
- Estimates ranged from 95.4 to 104.6
The headline missed but it's not as bad as it looked. The index had been on a big run-up for the past 5 months. Still, combined with the comments from Whirlpool today, it's not a great sign for the consumer.
- Present situation 120.6 vs 128.5 prior
- Expectations 83.9 vs 87.8 prior
- Jobs hard-to-get 22.1 vs 21.6 prior
- One-year inflation expectations 4.8% vs 5.0% prior
The dip in inflation expectations and confidence may be notable to the Fed but I think enough members are married to a December hike now that it doesn't matter.
In terms of overall confidence, the flipside is the IBD/TIPP economic optimism survey released at the same time. It improved to 51.3 from 46.7.
