Details of the March 2016 US CPI inflation data report:

  • Prior 1.0% y/y
  • CPI ex food and energy 2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected
  • Prior was +2.3%

Month-over-month data:

  • CPI +0.1% vs +0.2% exp
  • Prior was -0.2%
  • Ex food and energy +0.1% vs +0.2% exp

Real average weekly earnings +1.1% y/y vs +0.7% prior

The pickup in average earnings is welcome but it's not as good as it looks. Last month, the wage rise fell to 0.6% (later revised to 0.7%) from 1.1% so this just takes it back to where it was before.

The Fed has been signalling that it wants to see inflation rise before making a move but the numbers just haven't materialized, despite better jobs.

The US dollar has been on an upswing for the past two days and yesterday's weak retail sales didn't stop it so I doubt if this report will either.