US Q3 GDP data (second estimate) is due for release on Tuesday (US time)
- Due at 1330GMT
- The first estimate was at +1.5% (annualized q/q)
- Consensus estimate for this revision is to put it at 2.1%
Comments from Nomura, they're expecting it even higher than 2.1%
- We expect Q3 GDP to be revised up to 2.4%
- Primarily due to stronger-than-assumed inventory investment ... Expect inventory investment will subtract 0.6pp from growth compared with the assumed 1.4pp previously
- Domestic demand in the aggregate should remain roughly unchanged
- Upward revisions to government spending and residential fixed investment were likely countered by weaker-than-expected business investment
- We expect final sales growth to remain at 3.0%
And, BoA/ML:
- We expect growth to be revised up to 2.1% qoq saar
- Inventories will be the primary driver, as stronger-than-anticipated September data revealed less inventory drawdown than initially assumed
- Instead of a 1.4pp drag on 3Q growth, inventories will likely have a negative contribution closer to 0.8pp
- Consumer spending and residential investment will likely be revised up
- Structures investment should head lower
- Advance trade data released at the same time as GDP may contain revisions to 3Q, so there is some uncertainty in our forecast
- Expect the GDP price index to be unrevised at 1.2% qoq ... core PCE price index similarly unrevised at 1.3%
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While we're at it ....
Westpac:
- Expect 1.9%
- Inventories to be revised higher, but still a weak quarter
