Up from prior month -0.1% (revised from -0.2% last).

The US business inventories increased by a greater than expected +0.7% vs +0.6%. This was the largest gain since June 2015. Was it voluntary into the Christmas season?

  • Retail inventories increased by 1% in November. Largest since Sept 2015
  • Wholesaler inventories rose 1% in November vs -0.4% last month. Largest since Nov 2014
  • Business sales increased by 0.1% in November vs +0.7% previously.
  • The inventory to sales ratio increased to 1.38 months vs 1.37 months last month. A year ago it was at 1.39 months.

The numbers on the surface are not that great (although they should increase GDP estimates). The inventory builds have a lot of "largest since..." qualifiers. That might be voluntary in anticipation of holiday sales.

And indeed, the National Retail Federation just came out saying that holiday sales were up 4% this year. That is greater than the 3.6% estimate. So it may be a little early to make a call on the impact of the increases.