Last month 96.9
The Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 98.0 from 96.5
- Current conditions 115.2 vs 112.5 est
- Expectations 86.9 vs 86.5 est
- 1 year inflation 2.5% vs 2.5% last
- 5-10 year 2.4% vs 2.4% last
Consumer sentiment inched upward in early April mainly due to more favorable views of current economic conditions.
The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to its highest level since 2000 and nearly reached its all-time peak of 121.1 set in 1999.
The Expectations Index improved only slightly, remaining largely unchanged at favorable levels for the past three months.
According to the University of Michigan:
"While partisanship had no impact on the Current Conditions Index (Democrats and Republicans differed by just 0.4 points), the data suggest the beginning of a convergence on the Expectations Index, with the figure for Democrats rising 7% and falling for Republicans by 7%, although the gap still remained an astonishing 50.5 Index points. Much more progress on shrinking the partisan gap is needed to bring economic expectations in line with reality. A slow pace of convergence will make it more difficult to disentangle political fervor from what appears to be a growing sense among consumers that the economy will experience fundamental changes in the years ahead.
It can be anticipated that optimism will commingle with uncertainty, causing uneven spending patterns across months. Moreover, differential price trends for assets, products, and imports will cause uneven trends in incomes, wealth, and spending across products as well as economic subgroups."
The index is a "soft" economic number (one that is survey related). The consumer is showing confidence, but with 1Q GDP estimates below 2%, the market will be looking for confirmation going forward in the "hard" economic data.
