'Britain Elects' aggregates UK election polls into its model
In the run-up to next week's general election it has launched its first forecast (they call it their 'nowcast').
The firm caution:
- Our nowcast is not a picture of what will happen on polling day
- But rather a snapshot as to how the nation would vote if the election were held today
- Model combines historical data as well as national and regional polling
- Then estimates the probability a party has at holding onto each seat
Its good news for the current government, the nowcast has the Tories increasing their seats in the House of Commons. In summary:
- Conservative 362 (+32 seats)
- Labour 206 (-26 )
- Scottish National 47 (-9 )
- Liberal Democrat 11 (+3 )
- UKIP 0 (-1 )
(I haven't included Plaid Cymru, Green nor Independents / Other in the table above)