The latest in a raft of UK election opinion polls 28 May
ICM poll for The Sun newspaper.
- Conservatives 46% vs 47% prev conducted on 22 May
- Labour 32% vs 33% prev
- Lib Dems 8%
- UKIP 5%
Eamonn had the results of other polls here, all of which show May ahead but by a smaller margin.
Should we believe the polls? Given recent history re Brexit and US elections then we know only that they can get it wildly wrong but algos and markets care little for the eventual outcome at this stage.
Conjecture and uncertainty are the name of the game and this latest poll should help settle the pound a little in Asian trading at least, given its poll/terror attack-led wobble last week. However, don't forget that the focal point of this election is now shifting away from Brexit and onto national security, social care and related matters.
The UK press this week-end is full of articles about it becoming a personality/leadership vote between May and Corbyn but given the former's numerous recent U-turns (including the call for this snap election) her popularity is wavering and creating in-house bickering. Corbyn may still be unelectable to many but could yet spring a surprise by capturing the vote of the disenchanted. The real pro-Europe party have yet to make an impact and their leader Tim Farron remains largely ineffective but don't underestimate their ability to steal a few seats.
I said from the outset, without any political bias, that May had taken a calculated risk by calling this election and had underestimated the anger still prevailing among the Remain voters. Now she has lost a good deal of her teflon veneer and the oft quoted mantra of offering "strong and stable leadership" is wearing somewhat thin, despite the tragic events in Manchester last Monday.
8th June looms ever nearer and we can expect the campaign rhetoric to be intensified. Whilst that might, or might not, affect the actual outcome, and interim polls, it will certainly feed the reactive role of the robots.
May versus Corbyn - The battle intensifies
