Tough to stay confident
US economic data earlier today was strong but the ADP numbers feel like they came out a lifetime ago with all the economic news that's been crossing today.
1) The ECB
The story on largely unchanged ECB forecasts argues that Draghi will do less to goose the market tomorrow. European equities have been hitting the brakes for the past couple days because it's going to be tough for Draghi to impress the market, no matter what he does.
2) Yellen hawkish
Yellen emphasizes that she was confident in the inflation outlook today and that's about as strong of a signal is you're ever going to get from her about hiking. The Fed would be straining its credibility if they choke once again.
3) Oil
Oil stocks are getting beaten up with crude at $40/barrel. There are winners and losers when prices at the pump fall but oil companies are most sensitive to the minute-to-minute moves. Besides, who is going to spend $5 more at Christmas this year because they saved $5 on fuel?
The decline in stocks is weighing on USD/JPY as it slips back to 123.30 from a high of 123.67. The S&P 500 is down 17 points to 2085.
