What are the key economic events for the week starting February 1, 2016

  1. US Employment report. The US employment report will be released at 8;30 AM ET/0130GMT on Friday Feb 5th. The expectations are for Non Farm Payroll to rise by 190K vs 292K last month. The 292K justified the December tightening. It did not sway the Fed at all in January. The Fed is betting on jobs growth to keep the economic momentum going in 2016 and justify future increases in rates. 1b. Canada employment will also be released at 8:30 AM ET
  2. ECB Draghi speaks. Monday, February 1, 2016 .ECB's Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on Monday at 11 AM ET/ 1600 GMT. The ECB president hinted of increased stimulation during his last press conference. The flash estimate for CPI rose to 0.4% this month despite declines in oil prices. Don't raise the glasses and toast inflation just yet. The rise was helped because a year ago (Jan 2015) prices fell -1.5%. That value fell out of the equation for YoY this month. What happens going forward in February and March? In Feb 2015 and March 2015 prices rose by 0.6% and 1.1% respectively. Unless CPI inflation rises by equal values or higher, the CPI will head back lower. Draghi speaks on Thursday as well (3 AM ET/ 0800 GMT)
  3. BOE interest rate decision and statement. Thursday, February 4 at 7 AM ET/1200 GMT. The BOE will release their latest interest rate statement,and will also present the quarterly Inflation Report. Policy is expected to remain unchanged. The inflation report gives the BOE's projection on inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. BOEs Carney reiterated earlier comments this week, that the conditions were not right for a UK rate hike. The committee is expected to follow suit. CLICK HERE for last months statement.
  4. RBA interest rate decision and statement. Monday, February 1st, 10:30 PM ET (in US)/Tuesday 0330 GMT (in Europe). The RBA is expected to keep rates at 2.00%. CLICK HERE for the statement from December. It will be a release where traders compare and contrast the words for clues on whether a cut is down the road.
  5. China Manufacturing PMI. Sunday Jan 31 at 8 PM ET followed by Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 8:45 PM ET/0145 GMT). The expectations is for 49.6 vs. 49.7 and 48.1 vs. 48.2 respectively.