Bank of Canada Governor comments to be published at 9:55 am ET (1355 GMT)

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will speak near Toronto at 1410 GMT. Note, however, that his comments will be published on the BOC website 15 minutes earlier.

The topic of the speech is Canada's economic history so it might be a dud. But there will be a press conference at 11:10 am ET (1510 GMT) so we'll eventually get something on his outlook and interest rates.

I see a big skew in the risks headed into this speech.

The Bank of Canada has remained stubbornly dovish in 2017, despite the shift towards more optimism and higher inflation expectations globally.

What makes that doubly tough to reconcile is that Canadian economic data has been glowing. The economic surprise index from Citi is at the best level since 2010. It measures how economic numbers have performed compared to expectations and everything out of Canada has been strong lately.

So there is no prospect of Poloz shifting to be more dovish. The skew is that he will either be the same, or more hawkish.

But what's priced in?

There is talk about a hawkish shift so there will be some CAD selling if he sticks with the same kind of rhetoric from the BOC statement.

The key lines in the March 1 announcement were:

"The Bank's Governing Council remains attentive to the impact of significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook and continues to monitor risks outlined in the January MPR. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent."

The BOC has also dismissed near-term inflation rises and pointed to the future.

Given the economic data, I assume a slightly more optimistic view is priced in, but not much. The BOC's Schembri spoke last week and was cautious.

So if it's the same old dovish message from Poloz, expect 30-50 pips of CAD selling. But if he shifts to a hawkish stance, the Canadian dollar could strengthen 100 pips today and 300-400 over the coming week.

We'll have full coverage of the headlines as they hit.