For the week Feb 22-26

  1. US Durable Goods for January. Thursday, Feb 25 at 8:30 AM ET. Last months Durable Goods report was not so good at -5.0%. If you look at non defense ex air it was down -4.3%. That was for the 4Q. This number is for the 1st quarter which is shaping up to be better at least from a consumption standpoint. For example, the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate was last reported at 2.6%. Will business capital spending rebound? This is the first look in 2017. The estimate is for the headline number to rise by 2.5%. Is you strip out transportation the gain is +0.3%. Cap goods orders non defense ex air is expected to rise by 1.0%
  2. US GDP (second revision) for the 4Q. Friday, Feb 26 at 8:30 AM ET. The first estimate for 4Q GDP came in at +0.7%. The revision is not looking so good. The estimate is for +0.4%. The market may not care as the market knows it. It anticipates it. It is looking forward to a stronger Q1
  3. US Existing home sales. Tuesday, February 23rd, 10 AM ET. US existing home sales for January will be released at 10 AM ET. The estimate is for the annualized sales pace to slow to 5.33M vs. 5.46M last month. For your guide, last month the sales pace increased sharply from a 4.76M pace in November. The large gain was attributed to new mortgage regulations which delayed closings and pushed them to December. New home sales - a much smaller number - is expected to be released on Wednesday at 10 AM ET. The estimate is 520K vs 544K the prior month.
  4. German Ifo business climate. Tuesday, February 23rd, 4 AM ET, 0900 GMT. The German IFO Business Climate index for the month of February will be released with the expectation for a fall to 106.8 from 107.3. The Current assessment is expected to also fall to 112.0 from 112.5. The Expectations is expected to fall to 101.6 from 102.4.
  5. UK GDP 4Q (revision). Thursday, February 25th 4:30 AM ET. The revised 4Q GDP statistics will be released with the estimate of 0.5% QoQ being equal to the first cut. Private consumption is expected to rise by 0.8% vs. +0.9%. Government spending is expected to rise by 0.2% vs. 0.6%. Gross fixed capital formation is supposed increase by 1% vs. 0.7%. Exports are expected increase by 0.4% and imports by 1.3%.

In other key events and releases:

  • SNB's Jordan speaks at 6:15 AM ET/1115 GMT on Tuesday, February 23
  • The US conference board consumer confidence. Tuesday, February 23 at 10 AM. Estimate 97.6 vs. 98.1
  • Weekly US crude oil inventories. 10:30 AM on Wednesday, February 24.
  • Weekly US unemployment claims. The last few weeks have seen a trend back lower
  • US Personal spending on Friday at 8:30 AM ET Estimate at +0.3%.