The euro continues to climb despite looming French elections
There's reasons to be cautious
The euro is confounding my expectations of it so far this week. I was tipping it to have a soft tone with the French election risk on the doorstep. However, other news and events have taken over and the euro has seen nothing but gains all month. The main election hedge trading was being done in EURJPY so perhaps that's let EURUSD off the hook somewhat.
Irrespective of my ramblings on the matter, the price is where the price is, and that's right up against an old S&R level going back to last year.
EURUSD H1 chart
Pretty much the area of 1.0770/80 is where the price has either held or temporarily stalled on various occasions and it's doing it again now.
Should we move through then a test of 1.0800 should follow soon after. Above 1.0800, 1.0810/20 is the next resistance and that's likely to extend up to another old level at 1.0830. 1.0870/80 is a bigger old level.
If we are to see decent support, the 1.0735/45 area will be first but look for some trying to build around 1.0750. 1.0700 remains the ultimate support level on an intraday basis.
We're two trading days from the elections and I'm very worried about what can happen to the price at the Asia open on Sunday night. There's an extremely high risk that we will get a gap move either way so if you're riding this euro rally and want to hold it, you need to think carefully about what you want to do with it before Friday's close.