Not much growth left
The Atlanta Fed updated their GDP estimate for the 1st quarter earlier today, and once again it is to the downside. The new GDP growth estimate is 0.1% vs. 0.4% last reported on April 5. The decline was attributed to the wholesale trade report from the US Bureau of Census. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to the 1st quarter to real GDP fell from -0.4% to -0.7%.
The GDP estimate has fallen from an mid Feb estimate of 2.7% to the current low water mark of 0.1%. The next GDP estimate will be on Wednesday April 13th after the Retail Sales data will be released. The expectations for March retail sales is for a 0.1% gain. Taking out the volatile ex-auto and gas is expected to rise by 0.3% and the Control Group is also expected to rise by 0.3%. Maybe....just maybe....the GDP estimate will tick up slightly at that time and avoid the negative reading (remember weather was not a negative excuse this year)...
If you want to see how the GDPNow tracks the actual 1st cut of GDP, CLICK HERE.
