Still looking for some decent growth in the 4th quarter

The Atlanta Fed is out with their most recent tracking of the 4Q GDP.

IN their own words:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on January 19, unchanged from January 13. The forecast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 9.4 percent to 8.8 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 26

The estimate is above what is consensus. The current estimate for GDP is 2.1% (as per Bloomberg estimates from market analysts/economists). The NY Fed Now Cast estimate is currently tracking 1.9%. They will release their most recent estimate tomorrow.

As mentioned, the next estimate from the Atlanta Fed is next Thursday. That will also be the last for this series as the 1st cut of the 4Q GDP will be released on Friday January 27th. They will then begin the tracking of 1Q GDP.

There will be two other revisions for GDP after that (the first on Feb 28th and the second on March 30th). Typically, the 1st release is the one the market tends to react to the most.

With the Atlanta Fed much higher than consensus, they are putting their model against the others. Who will be more accurate? The field or the lonely Atlanta Fed?