Terrible Chinese trade numbers

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Author: Adam Button

  • Exports +2.9% y/y vs +9.0% exp
  • Imports flat vs +2.0% exp
  • Trade surplus $19.63B vs $26.85 exp

Massive misses on exports and imports. On exports, the lowest estimate on Bloomberg was +6.0%. AUD/USD quickly down to 1.0468.

There has been some volatility in recent Chinese trade data but it’s difficult to imagine any justification for zero import growth compared to last year.

It is difficult to reconcile these numbers with the strong industrial production numbers on the weekend, unless you believe in manipulation. Trade data is almost impossible to manipulate, unlike others.