Not a voting member of the FOMC this year
SF Fed's Williams is speaking. He is not a voting member this year.
- A lot of people have benefited from recovery
- Worries about populous reactions on economy
- Doesn't see obvious signs of possible recession
- He's looking for obvious signs of in balances
- December rate rise driven by economic improvement
- Reiterates feds gradual path for rates/declines to describe what gradual path might look like
- Puts risk of recession at 10 to 15%. Characterizes risk as normal.
- Slower growth in China's nothing to be afraid of, but has a big impact on commodities
- Sees China growth slowing to 5.5%
- Strong domestic demand offsetting weakness in exports, manufacturing
- Expects US unemployment in the US to continue to fall
- US economic strength can offset global headwinds