Details from the September 2016 UK visible trade balance 9 November 2016

  • Prior -12.112bn

  • Trade balance -5.221bn vs -3.950bn exp. Prior -4.733bn. Revised to -3.768bn

  • Non-EU bal -3.969bn vs -3.450bn exp. Prior -3.756bn. Revised to -3.291bn

  • EU trade -8.729bn vs -8.356bn prior. Revised to -7.856bn

  • Exports -0.8% vs 0.2% prior

  • Imports 4.7% vs 5.3% prior

Imports still running high so no real benefit so far from the weaker pound to our exporters.

That also wraps up the quarter where the numbers look slightly better.

  • Q3 trade bal -11.047bn vs -12.691bn in Q2

  • Q3 exports +1.8% vs -1.2% prior q/q

  • 2.6% y/y

  • Q3 imports -0.3% vs 1.5% prior q/q

  • 5.0% y/y

Q4 will be important to see if the fall in the quid really is going to have a marked effect.

The ONS say that the Q3 numbers should add a small positive contribution to the next GDP revision.

UK visible trade balance