RBA board member Professor Ian Harper in the local press (The Australian) today (from a Wall Street Journal interview)

Main points (the full article is here but may be gated: Trade tensions between US and China could benefit Australia: RBA's Ian Harper):

  • Economists say that a serious trade battle between the world's two biggest economic powers (US & China) would likely hammer the Australian dollar ... (Harper says) in that scenario, a weaker Aussie dollar would help the local economy, while policy makers in Beijing would also likely take action to prop up Chinese growth ... "You would expect some countervailing action to stimulate Chinese economic activity"

Harper welcomes a lower Australian dollar:

  • "I'd like to see the (Australian-dollar) rate weaker than where we've seen it over the last 2-3 years, that's for sure"
  • But he does not a sudden decline on the horizon

Outlook for the Australian economy:

  • forecasting a rebound in economic activity from the unexpectedly weak third quarter
  • economy was weak in the absence of strong non-mining investment and government spending
  • "Non-mining business investment ... It has been growing, but it needs to grow faster."
  • Employment growth is weak
  • Retail spending isn't as strong as it otherwise could be