We've had February, March and April RBA decisions so far this year (January was holiday time).
3 decisions, and 3 consecutive times the markets have moved in the correct direction in the seconds leading up to the announcement.
The RBA have conducted an investigation and in the previous Minutes said the movement ahead of the announcement is all just a lack of liquidity.
Yeah, right. Thats pretty much all I need to get every single trading decision right, a perfect 100% record (so far this year), just a lack of liquidity and all of a sudden I know perfectly which way the Board is going to go and which way the markets are going. FFS.
Anyway ... a lot of the blame is being laid at the feet of the high frequency traders and algos (the two are often used, wrongly, interchangeably, but I'll let that go for now) for the early info. But ... its time to stop blaming the HF and algo traders.
'Cause we got a decision coming up tomorrow from the RBA (0430GMT on May 5). And, we don't need to wait for the decision - it's a 25bp cut.
One of the better Australian RBA watchers out there, Peter Martin of the Sydney Morning Herald has the early news. Ryan spotted it back on Thursday and let ForexLive traders know.
Concern about a deteriorating economic outlook and a resurgent Australian dollar will force the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates on Tuesday
Bolding is mine.
Of course, there is always a doubt, its never a certainty, is it? No, not this time (see bolded). Martin was quoted over the weekend in another piece from another of the excellent team at the Sydney Morning Herald, Michael Pascoe:
I asked Peter on the record if the story was a drop.
He replied: "I can't say how I got the story. It is accurate."
No need to wait.
It's a cut. Time to lay off the HFT and algos. Forget seconds and millisecond leaks. Think days.
