Just a quickie from Westpac NZ on the AUD and NZD for today and further out
AUD/USD 1 day:
- Retains upwards momentum, the next target 0.7380.
AUD/USD 1-3 month:
- The current multi-week rally could extend to the 0.7400 area, but multi-month we expect the US dollar uptrend to push AUD/USD down towards 0.7000.
NZD/USD 1 day:
- Retains upwards momentum, the next target 0.6700 and support now at 0.6600.
NZD/USD 1-3 month:
- During the next few weeks there is potential to rise further to the 0.6800-0.6900 area.
- The RBNZ remaining on hold is a material risk.
- Another risk is the US dollar running out of steam (for example, if the Fed issues very dovish guidance after hiking on 16 Dec).
- Those risks aside, an RBNZ rate cut and a Fed hike should combine to push NZD/USD lower towards 0.62 during the next few months.
AUD/NZD 1 day:
- Early signs the month-old rally wants to resume, a move above 1.1030 signalling such.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month:
- We expect the RBA to remain on hold in November, and the RBNZ to ease in December.
- Expected RBA vs RBNZ direction thus favours AUD/NZD upside over the next few months beyond 1.10 towards the 1.14 area.
