The latest UK wages and jobs data is released today at 08.30 GMT 18 May 2016
The focus may be on the FOMC Minutes at 18.00 GMT but this morning we get the latest update on the UK economy by way of the wages and jobs report.
I say it always in that order because, as I always point out, it's the wages data not jobs that is of main concern to the BOE nowadays, and has been for a while. Not that we're getting a hike anytime soon regardless but traders/algo boxes will feed off that more than jobs.
Brexit continues to dominate the headlines and traders mind-set but as we saw yesterday with UK inflation these data releases still have the power to move markets. Last month saw a downturn in both wages and jobs:
- ave weekly earnings 3mth-year +1.8% vs +2.3% exp vs +2.1% prev
- Feb weekly earnings ex bonus 3mth-year +2.2% vs +2.1% exp vs +2.2% prev
- March jobless claims change +6.7k vs -11k exp vs -9.3k prev revised from -18.k
- March claimant count rate 2.1% as exp/prev
- Feb employment change 3mth/3mth 20k vs 60k exp vs 116k prev
- Feb unemployment rate 5.1% as exp/prev
I don't see any reasons for an improvement this time around but a good reading should present a good rally-sell opportunity for GBP again. Moves will be limited given we have FOMC Minutes later but as usual a release wide of the mark will produce the customary knee-jerk as traders/boxes rush to feed from the trough.
I don't have the order boards at this early hour but I would continue to expect good sell interest on GBPUSD between 1.4530-50 with demand support into 1.4400 and 1.4380 then 1.4350.
EURGBP has good support/demand at 0.7800 still with more behind at 0.7780. Sellers/res expected at 0.7830-35 again and more behind at 0.7850.
