A preview of the NZ Q1 CPI (inflation) data is due at 1045am local time in New Zealand on Monday

  • That's 2245GMT (on Sunday )19 April 2015
  • Or 1845 US east coast time on Sunday
  • expected is -0.2% q/q and +0.2% y/y
  • prior was -0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y (note, that link contains graphs of NZ inflation, and a little more)

The results are expected, then, to fall well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand target band for inflation of 1 - 3%.
On the other hand, the expected fall is not quite as much as the Q1 fall of 0.4% RBNZ forecast in its March Monetary Policy Statement (which would leave the annual rate at 0%).

The New Zealand CPI is being weighed on by lower commodity prices as well as a still high exchange rate (despite the falls) and low wage growth.

I did an earlier preview of the data points, here: New Zealand inflation data release due Monday - preview

From that earlier piece:

Analyst comments on whats expected:

  • Reuters: The quarterly drop in the consumer price index will be led by a fall of about 10 percent in petrol prices, and a seasonal drop in international airfares, which will offset the usual rise in alcohol and tobacco taxes, education costs and food. The RBNZ generally disregards such wild price swings when setting rates, but remains on the alert for domestic price pressures - the non-tradables such as housing, electricity, and building costs - which rose 2.4 percent in 2014. In contrast, the relative strength of the New Zealand dollar will have dampened imported or tradable inflation, which fell 1.3 percent in the year to December.
  • Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon: "The broader picture remains one of subdued inflation despite a rapidly growing economy"
  • ANZ senior economist Mark Smith: "The short-term outlook for consumer price inflation is soft. The hurdle to an OCR (official cash rate) cut remains relatively high and we expect a prolonged period of stability in OCR settings,"

Note ... although the CPI data on Monday is going to be a focus, what may be even more important later in the week is a speech from RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott. He is speaking to the Waikato Chamber of Commerce and Industry about inflation on Thursday (April 23) at 1230pm local time (0030GMT on April 23). He will likely provide more clarity on the central bank's outlook for inflation and perhaps what it may mean for monetary policy.