I posted a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today here:
- AUD traders - RBA meets today, expected to leave the cash rate unchanged
Its unanimously expected that the RBA will leave the cash rate on hold.
But, over to ForexLive traders for their view.
Hold, cut or hike?
On the basis of taking a wild punt there has to be some (admittedly very small) probability of a rate cut. When the RBA cut rates in February 2015 Governor Stevens justified the cut by remarking he thought the economy could do with a bit of help. Well, could it do so again?
The reason I raise the (like I said, very small) probability of a cut is we get the Australian Q4 GDP data released this week (Wednesday). Expectations are for around 0.5% q/q growth, and on the basis of yesterday's inventory and company profit data (both weak) expectations could well be lowered to 0.4% (we get trade data today that'll give us another input). Thing is, the RBA will have already got this GDP data, so they have one up on everyone else by knowing Wednesday's data today.
I'll say it a third time ... a cut is a very low probability ... but its a but ...
ps. I'm an 'on hold'
Over to ForexLive traders:
