Oil pops like a newly drilled well
WTI popping through the upside tech made my mind up on my USDCAD long first thing this morning. In bed with the alarm still ringing in my ears I checked the loonie price then checked the oil price and got out of the trade
WTI breaking up is having a big say in commodity currencies and that's not often something you want to fight
WTI daily chart
The clue that I was in trouble was the break below 1.3060 and then the price holding below, a fact I was prepared to ride down to a break of 1.30.
USDCAD 15m chart
The fact that oil is driving the move throws a spanner into my reason for being in the trade. Yesterday I wrote;
"Oil is the big random but it's not such a risk while it remains within its range and at the moment that's pretty clear"
Well, the range broke sure enough and for now oil is looking strong
When you get something that materially affects your strategy you can't ignore it. I could sit here and think "I'll just ride out the oil moves and see what happens" but that's a strategy that moves into the realms of 'hope' not of 'control', and for this it means I'm trading oil not USDCAD
Too many reasons why I should not be in a trade usually results in me getting out of a trade, and that's often done me less harm than staying in
