New Zealand October trade balance, -963m

  • expected is -1bn prior was -1140, revised from-1.222bn

Exports, 3.83bn

  • expected is 4.00bn, prior was 3.68bn, revised from 3.69bn

Imports, 4.79

  • expected is 4.97bn, prior was 4.82bn, revised from 4.91bn

The 'headline' is a better than expected result ... but at what cost? Exports lower ... imports lower

Via Stats NZ:

Total goods exports fell to $3.8 billion, down 4.5% y/y

  • Milk powder, butter, and cheese led the fall
  • Goods exports to China rose $57 million (9.2 percent) ... China ahead of Australia as top annual export destination
  • Rise in exports to China this month was led by beef, milk powder, and kiwifruit

The rise and fall of dairy exports has been driven by demand from China, and is reflected in total exports to China. China became the top export destination in November 2013, but fell below Australia from March to September 2015. However, China is now both our top export destination for goods, and our top source of imports. Although milk powder exported to China fell 65 percent for the year ended October 2015, it is still the largest commodity. Smaller exports such as beef and fruit have doubled in value in the past year.

Goods imports down, led by falls in petrol and avgas, and capital goods