The non-farm payrolls preview for July 2, 2015 that sticks to the numbers:

Release time is Thursday at 8:30 am ET (1230 GMT)

  • Median estimate 233K (225K private)
  • May reading: 280K
  • High est 290K (Capital Economics)
  • Low est 190K (RBC)
  • Avg of estimates made on July 1: 251K
  • Standard deviation: 24K
  • NFP 6-month avg 236K
  • Unemployment rate est. at 5.4% vs 5.5% prior
  • Prior participation rate 62.9%
  • Avg hourly earnings exp +0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y
  • Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
  • ADP 237K vs 203K prior (218K exp)
  • ISM May manufacturing employment 55.5 vs 51.7 prior
  • ISM May non-manufacturing employment (not yet released)
  • Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 25.7 vs 27.2 prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 273K vs 275K at the time of the April jobs report
  • Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine demand for hiring down 114.3K in June
  • June 2015 US Challenger layoffs 44.8K vs 41.0K May -- up 42.7% y/y
  • April JOLTS job openings: 5376K vs 5109K prior

    • nonfarm payrolls net change

    Goldman Sachs says: "Labor market indicators were mixed in June, suggesting a print roughly in line with the 217k monthly average seen so far in 2015. We expect the unemployment rate to decline by one-tenth to 5.4%. Finally, average hourly earnings are likely to rise a softer 0.1% in June as a result of calendar effects."

    It's a rare Thursday release of non-farm payrolls because of the US holiday on Friday. That's an added wrench in a week that already features a snap Greek referendum. The US dollar is sizzling hot headed into the release, gaining a cent against the euro, pound, Swiss franc and loonie on Wednesday.

    After the net change in payrolls, the second-most important line will be average hourly earnings followed by average weekly hours. The Fed knows the jobs market is solid but if they're forced into a September rate hike, it will be because of early signs of wage inflation.

    If you'd like to win a free copy of Greg Michalowski's book Attacking Currency Trends, play along with our free non-farm payrolls contest.