May will win election but her brand is beginning to lose
Theresa May was the right politician at the right time. She vanquished her rivals for the Conservative leadership and immediately case herself as the champion of 'strong, stable leadership.'
It's become the mantra for her party and her consistent handling of the Brexit fallout strengthened her reputation.
She decided to tempt her luck with an election call when she said she wouldn't. That appeared shrewd as she started out with close to a 25-point lead in the polls.
But with Labour campaigning hard on the left and tempting voters with promises, she's losing ground. A poll just released from the Guardian/ICM puts here lead at 14 points:
- Conservatives: 47% (down 1)
- Labour: 33% (up 5)
- Lib Dems: 9% (down 1)
- Ukip: 4% (down 2)
- Greens: 2% (down 1)
Already her party is hitting the panic button and reversing a pledge to remove a cap social costs.
She will still win the election but the quick U-turn on the cap and panicky response is something that will damage her brand and is the kind of thing that may even embolden European EU negotiators, who will want to pressure her again.
The election is June 8.
