apan Q3 preliminary GDP data
GDP (seasonally adjusted), preliminary, q/q: -0.2%
- expected -0.1%, prior -0.2%, revised from -0.3%
GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted), preliminary y/y: -0.8%
- expected -0.2%, prior -0.7%, revised from -1.2%
GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted), preliminary q/q: 0.0%
- -0.2% expected %, prior +0.2%, revised from +0.1%
GDP Deflator y/y, preliminary: 2.0%
- expected 1.7%, prior 1.5%
GDP Consumer Spending y/y, preliminary q/q, +0.5%
- expected is +0.4%, prior was -0.6%, revised from -0.7%
GDP Business Spending y/y, preliminary q/q: -1.3%
- -0.5% expected, prior was -1.2%, revised from -0.9%
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Quick assessment (more to come)
That Japan is in recession was expected
The negative GDP in Q3 was worse than expected, offset somewhat (if you really care about ancient history of Q2) by the revisions for Q2
The GDP Deflator (measures inflation) is in at a higher than expected 2% .... this will be good news for the Bank of Japan. It also further pushes back expecations of further monetary easing ... this is NOT on the horizon (famous last words?). What we will get is new fiscal action.
OK ... so far so m'eh ...
But wait .... check out that capex result ... 'Business spending' ... much worse than expected .... barf bag territory (sorry to be crass .... but that's a bad result)
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Just checking out the newsflow surrounding the data release ... lots of pixels about Japan in recession again ... yeah, we know.
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Yen barely moving.
2 reasons
1. Japan data releases often result in little yen response
2. To anyone paying the slightest bit of attention the fact Japan is back in recession is not a new piece of information. Please ignore the breathless headlines. Quadruple, quintuple .... whatever ...
