Via Daiwa Capital Markets, some remarks on the Japanese economic data we saw last week
(While the rest of the world was on holidays ForexLive continued to track the Japanese data, as did Daiwa)
In (very) brief summary of Daiwa's comments:
- The deluge of Japanese economic data published over the holiday provided mixed messages about the state of recovery in the final quarter of 2016
- But on the whole, they suggested that Japan remained on track to post a fourth quarter of positive GDP growth
- Manufacturing output rose for the third month out of the past four in November ... taking it to its highest level since the start of 2015
- Conditions appear in place for continued near-term gains in production, with the inventory-shipment ratio falling by 5½%M/M in November to its lowest level since April 2014
- November's retail sales figures were also firmer than expected, rising for the third consecutive month to leave them on average so far in Q4 almost 2½% higher than the average in Q3
- Latest household expenditure figures, with total spending (in real terms) down for the third month out of the past four in November, while spending on 'core' items- which typically best tracks the national accounts measure of consumption - fell to its lowest level since the series began in 2000
- The latest inflation figures showed a further notable increase in the headline CPI rate, rising ... to +0.5%Y/Y, an eighteen-month high
- Reflected a further spike in prices of fresh foods. Indeed, underlying inflationary pressures in the latest data were much less marked than the headline CPI rate implied
