Highlights of the January durable goods report:
- Prior -5.0% (revised to -4.6%)
- Ex-transport +1.8% vs +0.3% exp
- Prior ex-transport -1.0% (revised to -0.7%)
- Cap goods orders non-def ex-air +3.9% vs +1.0% exp m/m.
- Prior cap goods orders non-def ex-air -4.3% (revised to -3.7%)
- Cap goods shipments non-def ex-air -0.4% vs -0.5% exp m/m.
- Prior cap goods shipments non-def ex-air +0.2% (revised to +0.9%)
The non-defense capital goods order ex-aircraft is the key line in the report and it smashed expectations with the best reading since June 2014. It came along with a 0.6 pp upward revision to the prior.
This has been a serially disappointing report so the glimmer of good news is welcome.
Also note the revision to December shipments. That's a key line for GDP and it means Q4 growth data will be adjusted upwards.
To put it into perspective, it's great news for one month but over the past 12 months, orders have still averaged a 0.2% m/m decline.
