How did the seasonals perform in January

I posted three forex seasonal trends at the start of the month. Few could have expected what unfolded in January with a rout in stock and commodity markets.

Let's see how the seasonal trades stacked up:

#3: Euro winter blues

We said: "January is by far the worst month for the euro"

What happened: That trade started the month out great as EUR/USD sank to 1.0711 on January 5 from 1.0862 at the close on Dec 31. From there, risk aversion and carry trade unwinds helped to put a bid under the euro and it hit a high of 1.0985.

Draghi seemingly came to the rescue of the bears but his promise of more easing has hardly hurt the euro.

Overall, the trade was never in or out of the money more than 1%. It was choppy overall but a big decline today salvaged it and the euro is slated to finish fractionally lower on the month.

#2: A glittering start to the year

We said: "Since 2000 the first month of the year is second best on the calendar with an average 2.5% gain." We also noted that recent Januarys have been strong despite the long-term gold decline.

What happened: Gold did it again this year with a 5.2% month-to-date gain. Gold started out the month very strong, chopped around during the middle of the month and then hit a three-month high of $1128 on Wednesday. It was a wonderful place to be to escape the January volatility.

#1: I need a dollar

We said: "January is by far the best month on the calendar for the US dollar index."

What happened: The US dollar was the top G10 performer and the dollar index finished the month 1.02% higher. It traded very strongly in the first few days of the year and then sagged back before today's late charge thanks to the BOJ.

Odds and ends we noted:

"January is the fourth worst month for AUD and NZD versus USD" (NZD was down 5.27%, AUD down 2.81%)

"It's the best month for USD/JPY over the past 30 years but over the past 10 years it's the second-worst month." (Caution was warranted. USD/JPY was down for most of the month until the BOJ came to the rescue today)

"Cable finished the year on the lows and there are signs that specs are piling into shorts after Weale tilted dovish. Jan and Feb are the two worst months for the pound over the past 30 years." (Cable had a horrible month, falling 3.64% and hitting a long-term low)

Overall seasonal scorecard

It was tough to hold any trades amidst all the January madness but the two FX trades scored modest wins and gold was a rockstar.

Check back on the weekend and we will have the February 2016 seasonals.