January 2017 UK retail sales -0.3% vs 0.9% exp m/m
Details of the January 2017 UK retail sales data report 17 February 2017
- Prior -1.9%. Revised to -2.1%
- 1.5% vs 3.4% exp y/y. Prior 4.3%. Revised to 4.1%
- Ex-fuel -0.2% vs 0.7% exp m/m. Prior -2.0%. Revised to -2.2%
- 2.6% vs 3.9% exp y/y. Prior 4.9%. Revised to 4.7%
Ok, so now we are seeing a real problem. The ONS say that rising prices in food and fuel are behind this slowdown, which is a big big warning if folks are tapering spending due to prices. 3m/3m sales show the first drop since Dec 2013. Those notes alone make this report a killer of BOE hikes. That said, lets not get too carried away on this one report. As I said just now it's a notoriously volatile month. We'll need to see if this issue becomes more widespread or more deeply entrenched.
For now, though, go with the fact it's crap and the pound will suffer because of it, mainly due to expectations of rate hikes.
UK retail sales ex-fuel y/y