Inflation rears its ugly head again

  • ECB uses a variety of CPI expectation gauges
  • The correlation between inflation expectations and oil has risen

Draghi's now been asked about possible expectations now for March following the market getting ahead of itself before the Dec meeting

  • Says they have communicated appropriately
  • Situation is not materially different from December

Lets see how much the market starts factoring in. Before the announcement I listed a few banks expectations and most were going to June and 10bp cuts to the deposit rate and around €10bn increase to QE. We should expect the expectations to remain like that but obviously for March now

And it's over