A preview of the inflation data due from Australia today. We only get the official CPI readings once a quarter, so It's a bit of an event.

We do get a private-survey CPI once a month, from TD/MI. The latest is here.

For today ... Q3 CPI, due at 0030GMT:

'Headline'

  • q/q, expected is 0.7% and prior was 0.7%
  • y/y, expected is 1.7% and prior was 1.5%

'Trimmed mean' (this is the measure the Reserve Bank of Australia pay most attention to)

  • q/q, expected is 0.5% and prior was 0.6%
  • y/y, expected is 2.4% and prior was 2.2%

'Weighted median' (also of note to the RBA)

  • q/q, expected is 0.5% and prior was 0.5%
  • y/y, expected is 2.5% and prior was 2.4%

You can look at those figures whichever way you like, through polaroid glasses, squint, hey since we're in the southern hemisphere down here you can even stand on your head ... whatever you do though the inflation figures are showing comfortably within the RBA target band (2 to 3%), and pretty much in the centre of it.

There is a risk of a higher than expected read today. This is because with the AUD weaker there could be a pass through of higher import prices. This hasn't been the case so far, though. That's something to watch, though I reckon once again we'll get an around target reading which keeps inflation off the threat board at the RBA. The bank is focused on developments in domestic economic strength and the risks posed from offshore (good morning, China).