UK bookmakers are a good indication of where the money usually sits on a 50/50 bet
If there's something happening of note in the UK you can bet your bottom dollar that you can..er..bet on it.
It's always worth keeping an eye on the bookies to see where the money is going. We did it for the Scottish referendum and the general election.
At the moment the odds favour staying in at 2/5 (£2 back for a £5 stake, if you're unaware of how it works). The price to leave is 9/4 (£9 back for a £4 stake).
What we want to note is how the odds change as that gives us an indication on where the money is going and also where the bookies see the risk. If punters go heavy into stay bets the odds shorten and you get less return for your bet. If the bookies see the news moving voters they'll reflect that in the odds they offer, e.g if it looks like voters want to leave the odds for leaving will shorten and the odds for staying will lengthen.
Here's the latest numbers;
Latest odds and bet split - 52.85% of bets are on staying
For us trading, we can get an small idea on which way sentiment is leaning and changing among the UK people, and that can form part of our trading considerations.
While we don't like to link gambling with trading, if there's one thing that the bookies can teach us it's how to manage risk. It's their number one thought behind every bet they offer and during every pound they see placed on a bet. Bookmakers profit margins arrive just as much from risk management as they do from people who lose bets.
