The FOMC rate decision is Dec 16 at 1900 GMT (2 pm ET).
Here's what's going to happen. The Fed is going to hike rates 25 basis points to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, just like everyone expects. The statement will have no surprises and will pledge to be patient and cautious with rate hikes.
The dots will be a bit hawkish and Yellen's press conference will be a bit dovish.
The Fed desperately wants to be predictable when it hikes and the above would be the least-surprising outcome. If anything happens it will be due to some over-abundance of communication that results in some kind of misunderstood message.
What's far more interesting is how the market reacts. I absolutely hate that this decision is coming right before year-end. It skews everything and makes the market reaction untrustworthy.
