A Goldman Sachs credit strategist says that rising risk premiums for U.S. corporate debt are sending a false recession signal.
- Risk premiums for both investment-grade and high-yield debt are at levels that preceded recessions in 1990 and 2001
- But global growth in 2016 should underpin the market
- "Credit markets are likely to be no better at predicting recession than any other asset market"
- Goldman estimates the global economy will grow 3.5%, and for US core inflation to move gradually higher
