This from a February 21 note on oil from Goldman Sachs

  • "We do not view the recent U.S. builds as derailing our forecast for a gradual draw in inventories, with in fact the rest of the world already showing signs of tightness"
  • "Given our unchanged 1.5 million barrels per day growth forecast for 2017, this higher base demand level should fully offset higher U.S. output"

Brent and U.S. crude forecasts:

  • $59 and $57.50 per barrel respectively in the Q2
  • To $57 and $55 for the rest of 2017

On shale:

  • "While the production cuts have so far reached a historically high level of compliance at 90 percent, the rebound in U.S. drilling activity has exceeded even our above consensus expectations"
  • But the increase in U.S. drilling is due to factors like improvement in shale productivity & ease of funding, not from expectations of an increase in prices