Forex news for US Trading on July 15, 2016:
- Turkish State Broadcaster TRT goes Off Air
- Turkish President Erdogan: Speaking on cell phone to CNN
- Turkish PM on Twitter: security forces route will retaliate in kind after coup attempt
- Turkish President Erdogan still in charge; to make statement: Presidential source
- Turkish State Broadcaster TRT: Taken over by military and issues statement
- Turkish PM says attempted military coup underway. Turkish lira falls sharply: HEADLINES can be read here
- The technicals are talking to us in the EURUSD. What are they saying?
- S&P index falls ever so slightly. No record close today
- CFTC commitment of traders:Shorts in EUR and GBP increase. JPY longs cut.
- The Top 5 Events/Releases for next week
- Fed rate hike odds rapidly re-priced
- Fed's Bullard: Repeats call for one hike this year, none in 2017 and 2018
- Stocks taking a little breather today
- Lockhart: Federal Reserve may manage one or two rate hikes this year
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 357 vs 351 prior
- GBPUSD breaks below support and runs
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate rises to 2.4%
- Forex technical analysis: Dollar rises as the London fixing approaches
- Donald Trump will nominate Mike Pence as his running mate
- German 10-year yield turns positive for the first time since Brexit vote
- US business inventories for May comes in at 0.2% vs 0.1% estimate
- U Michigan prelim July US consumer sentiment 89.5 vs 93.5 expected
- The US economy isn't doing all that bad
- US June industrial production +0.6% m/m vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Bank of Italy lowers 2016 GDP forecast to below 1% from 1.1%
- Canadian June existing home sales -0.9% m/m vs -2.8% m/m prior
- US June CPI 1.0% y/y vs 1.1% y/y expected
- US retail sales for June 0.6% vs 0.1% estimate. Ex auto/gas 0.7% vs +0.3%
- Canada May manufacturing sales -1.0% vs -0.8% expected
- US NY Empire State manufacturing index July 0.55 vs 5.0 exp
US retail sales came out better than expectations, as did industrial production. Empire manufacturing and the U of Michigan consumer sentiment was not so hot. The market discounted the sentiment and focused on the what the consumer did (via retail sales.) and the dollar moved higher. Later, in the last hour of trading, there was reports of a coup in Turkey and that led to some more buying of the dollar and the JPY as safe haven currencies.
For the day, the dollar was up against all the main currencies with the exception of the JPY.
For the week the USD rose against the GBP, the CAD and was down against the NZD and the JPY. The dollar against the EUR, CHF and AUD were little changed.
How some of the favorite pair end the week?
EURUSD. The EURUSD remains in a narrow trading range . The range for the week was 150 pips, but the late day sell off sent the pair toward the low for the week For the day the pair moved 127 pips. Given a 150 pip trading range for the week, that is pretty good. Next week, we will be looking for a break outside of the narrow range (1.1023 to 1.1159) and the wider range 1.10000 and 1.11856. Needless to say with the price ending the week around 1.1035 the advantage is to the downside.
If the EURUSD was in a narrow trading range for the week, the GBPUSD was not. Now the range was not the 1800 pips seen during Brexit, but 620 was not too shabby either. Today, some of the short covering gains seen during most of the week, gave way to selling. The lows today were able to get through the 50% of the weeks trading range at the 1.31642 level. It is also closing below the topside resistance defined by the 100 hour MA, broken trend line support at the 1.3227 (the price is closing at 1.3180). That gives a slight negative bias to the pair.
The USDJPY was a bystander today after a strong week that saw the pair move about 4%. Toward the end of the day, the pair did find sellers on the back of a flight into to safety of the JPY as as result of the Turkey coup. We will see how the events play out over the weekend.
The commodity currencies got weaker generally today. In New Zealand on Monday morning, the CPI data will be released. In trading today, the pair feel below trend line support and ended near the lows of the day and the week. For the AUDUSD, the pair was not making new lows for the week in the last hour of trading, but was making new lows for the trading day. It also traded at the 200 hour MA at the 0.7558 level. The price has not traded below the 200 hour MA since June 6th. For the USDCAD it moved to a cluster of MA resistance levels defined by the 100 day MA (at 1.2874), the 100 bar MA on 4-hour (at 1.2872), the 100 hour MA (at 1.2988, the 200 hour MA (at 1.2997). The high today entered the middle of that cluster and traded at a high of 1.2987 (the MA go from 1.2872 to 1.2997). We ended below the cluster at 1.29668. Pay attention to that area in next weeks trading.
The Turkish coup will need to play out over the weekend. With concerns about global security after Nice and other recent terrorist activity, unrest and political hot spots can open up regions to vulnerabilities. Much is to be learned about Turkey, and the implications should lead to a volatile opening in the new trading week.
Have a safe weekend everyone....
