Forex news for US trading on January 15, 2016
- Headline retail sales match estimates but details weak
- December 2015 US PPI final demand -0.2% vs -0.2% exp m/m
- US Empire manufacturing -19.37 vs. -4.00 estimate
- US stock indices end the day down but off lows
- Fed's Dudley: Outlook hasn't changed much
- Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for 4Q falls to 0.6%
- CFTC commitment of traders report: JPY longs increase in current week
- Fed's Williams: Fed has option to "pause" to reassess at meetings
- WSJ Hilsenrath: Fed almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting
- New FOMC dot plot leaked
- Baker Hughes weekly US rig count: Oil rigs 515 vs 516 prior
- Time to ring the register on one of our top-10 trade ideas for 2016
- When hedge fund managers see their 2016 YTD performance reports
- There she goes. S&P trades at lowest level since Oct 2014
- Just to show we don't make this stuff up...
- Here's someone who likes the pound
- Guess which way European stocks closed today?
- Fed's Williams has a George W Bush moment
- Goldman Sachs cuts US Q4 GDP forecast on soft data
- Michigan's Curtin says shoppers are waiting for lower prices
- November 2015 US business inventories -0.2% vs -0.1% exp m/m
- January 2016 US Michigan consumer sentiment survey flash 93.3 vs 93.0 exp
- Gold roars back as fear grips markets
- Negative rates are a potential tool but not seriously considered right now
- ECB's Coeure: Eurozone surplus countries have a price stability role to play
- December 2015 US industrial production -0.4% vs -0.2% exp m/m
- Bank of Italy sees better GDP for 2015
- Canadian Nov existing home sales -0.6% vs +1.8% prior
- It's growing clearer that commodities are in the drivers' seat
- EURCHF still underpinned one year on from the SNB's historic CHF cap removal
It was an ugly day for the global stock indices as the selloff for the year continues. Most of the US and European stock markets showed declines of 2% or more. Thank goodness for an afternoon rally in the US. The S&P rallied 23 S&P points off the lows, while the Nasdaq was higher by 69 points. The S&P is still down over 8% and the Nasdaq is down 10.36% after the first 3 weeks of the new calendar year. Eyes continue to be on China. And of course, there was crude oil which closed below $30 per barrel today. The currency markets will continue to be impacted by the global flows with eyes on China, stocks and oil the main drivers.
Economic data today was a disappointment. Headline retail sales came in as expected at -0.1% but drilling down into the other measures showed weakness (Control group down -0.3% vs +0.3% est). PPI remains low. Empire Manufacturing and Industrial production were weaker than expected. Michigan consumer sentiment bucked the trend as it was higher than estimates (93.3 vs 93.0).
Fed's Williams and Dudley both spoke - and acted - as if a 8-10% stock market tumble and oil collapse was as expected. Perhaps the plan is to see if the stock market can get on it's own two feet without help from the Fed.
How did the dollar hold up? For the day, it was mixed - rising against the AUD, CAD and GBP, little changed against the NZD, and lower against the CHF, EUR and JPY.
For the week the CAD, GBP and AUD were the weakest. The CAD mainly because of the tumble in oil prices. The USDCAD traded to yet another new high going back to 2003. The GBPUSD was weak technically and also has the Brexit/slowdown fears. It traded at the lowest level going back to May 2010. The AUD was weak on the back of China slowdown concerns. It traded at the lowest level since March 2009.
The EURUSD ended the week little changed (0.8% change) and the USDJPY was down a smallish 0.27% after opening lower, ralling midweek, before falling with the stock market today.
In the cross world, the EURGBP rallied strongly and traded at the highest level going back to nearly 1 year ago (January 21, 2015 to be exact).
Wishing everyone a relaxing weekend after a more tumultuous week. Remember Monday is Martin Luther King day in the US.
