Forex news for US trading on November 13, 2015

  • EURUSD this week? Like kissing your sister...
  • Two blasts heard near Stade de France Stadium near Paris: Source BFM TV
  • US major indices post the largest weekly percentage declines in nearly 3 months
  • Earthquake reported in Japan, off Satsuma - Source JMA
  • Rough finish to the week: Stocks testing another support level
  • How hard can it be to put together the Commitments of Traders report?
  • Atlanta Fed GDP est. on track for 2.3% growth
  • Baker Hughes US oil rig count 574 vs 572 prior
  • S&P affirms Italy at BBB, stable outlook
  • How far will US stocks fall?
  • When something won't fall on bad news...
  • Michigan's Curtin says the drop in inflation is related to gas
  • US economic forecasters lower GDP estimates in latest Philly Fed survey
  • US Sept business inventories 0.3% vs 0.0% expected
  • November 2015 Michigan consumer sentiment flash 93.1 vs 91.5 exp
  • Between the lines Fed's Mester strongly hints at supporting Dec hike
  • Market stands pat on Fed hike expectations after retail and PPI data
  • Oil looking in trouble once again
  • Fed's Mester: Time to start normalizing if data supports her forecast
  • Current level of Canadian rates is appropriate says BOC's Wilkins
  • US Oct advance retail sales +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
  • October 2015 US PPI final demand -0.4% vs +0.2% exp m/m
  • BOC's Wilkins says QE is an adequate, but not perfect, substitute for monetary policy
  • Want to know what to do next ? UBS have a few ideas

The North American trading session was somewhat contained with up and down activity. Some late day selling of the dollar, however, is taking the dollar off the highs.

Retail sales today came out weaker than expectation (+0.1% vs. +0.3% est for the headline and +0.2% vs. +0.4% est for the control group). PPI was also much weaker at -0.4% vs. +0.2%. In other fundamental releases, the Michigan Sentiment rose to 93.1 vs. 91.5. Business inventories rose by 0.3% vs. 0.0% exp.

The EURUSD spent most of the NY trading day moving lower. The move lower took the price to a low of 1.0712. The 1.0700-06 was a support area at different times this week. The selling could not make it's way to that level. The NY afternoon session saw the price move higher and as the week comes to an end, there is increased buying that is sending the price to highs not seen since shortly after the morning data. There is late day violence activity around the city of Paris that corresponds with move higher (not sure why the EURUSD might be bought, but....). There are reports of "at least 26 dead 40 dead" at a bar shooting and a bomb that went off near the Stade de France (at a McDonalds). There are also reports of a hostage situation at a concert hall and possible nightclub incident. Terrorism activity is the speculation in the coordinated attacks.

The GBPUSD spiked higher after the weaker data but ran into resistance against trend line resistance and the 50% retracement of the November trading range at 1.5260. The price decline extended a narrow trading range to an intraday low of 1.5186. The pair is ending the day near unchanged.

The USDJPY spent most of the 2nd day in a row between the 100 and 200 hour MAs. Those MA end the week at 122.936 (100 hour MA) and 122.476 (200 hour MA). Next week, the market will eye these MAs for trading bias clues.

Oil ended down once again, with the active Crude oil contract down -2.44% at 40.73. The fall helped support the USDCAD and led to new highs for the week (at 1.33486). That break did run out of steam as oil recovered from a low of 40.22. The pair will remain supported as long as oil remains under pressured.

The AUDUSD made new highs for the week today at the 0.7157 level before falling to support at the 200 hour MA at the 0.7107 level. The pair rallied to 0.71236 at the close. The AUDUSD was supported by a surprisingly strong employment report on Thursday. Support will be eyed at the 0.7100 level in early trading next week.

US stocks ended the week on a sour note. The S&P fell by -1.12% on the day, the Nasdaq was down -1.54% and the Dow fell -1.16%.

US bond yields were lower with the 2 year losing 4 bp to 0.834%, the 10 year was down 5 bp to 2.265% and the 30 year fell by 4 bp to 3.0519%.