Forex news from the European morning session 10 Mar

News:

  • ECB's Weidman - Gone but not forgotten
  • Preview: Does the ECB really need to press the panic button today?
  • Where will EURUSD be by the time Draghi finishes the presser
  • Draghi gets one last look at inflation before the ECB meeting
  • Japan's Aso wants to continue with sales tax unless there's an unusual event
  • BOJ's Kuroda says it's not appropriate to talk about policy exit
  • China's Zhu says they will push forward on yuan convertibility this year
  • PBOC's Bai says China needs a forward looking monetary policy
  • Option expiries 10am NY cut today 10 March
  • There is no Eurogroup consensus on Greek debt talks - Livesquawk
  • Reuters poll has 11 from 12 economists forecasting RBNZ policy rate at 2.00 by end-Q2
  • Nikkei 225 closes up +1.26% at 16,852.35
  • Chinese equities close lower 10 March

Data:

  • German trade balance Jan +€13.6bln vs +€17.0 bln exp
  • France industrial production Jan mm +1.3% vs +0.8% exp
  • France Q4 non-farm payrolls final QQ +0.2% as exp
  • Italy Q4 unemployment rate 11.5% as expected
  • Spain retail sales yy Jan +2.0% vs +3.2% prev
  • China Feb vehicle sales yy -0.9% vs +7.7% prev

No prizes for guessing what's been on everyone's minds this morning and we've seen the euro under a little pressure again before recovering some poise.

Overall it's been the expected calm before the anticipated storm and movement across the board has been limited.

EURUSD has drifted from 1.0980 to 1.0960 before making the return trip while EURGBP fell to 0.7707 from 0.7735 and also bouncing to 0.7727 as I type. EURJPY fell on the double whammy of euro softness and year-end yen demand to post 124.26 with USDJPY falling back to 113.36 from 113.81 highs.

The EURGBP supply gave cable a lift again from 1.4185 this time to post 1.4232 just shy of yesterday's 1.4242 highs also driven by EURGBP selling. Commodity currencies have done well again with Aussie$ getting another helping hand from EURAUD sales but AUDUSD failed at the 0.7495-7500 hurdle back in place after yesterday's run through into 0.7530. USDCAD has been mostly in between 1.3245-1.3285 tracking an up and down and up again oil price.

USDCHF and EURCHF have been quiet at lower levels albeit underpinned still and we can expect the SNB to be close to their screens/phones as the ECB scenario unfolds.

This is just the warm-up though for the main act and it all starts with the ECB interest rate announcement at 12.45 GMT.