Forex trading news and economic data headlines 21 February 2017

News:

  • BOE's McCafferty: We are closer to inflation tolerance limits than six months ago
  • Haldane: If inflation expectation keep on picking up from here it would be a concern
  • BOE's Haldane: We've made some terrible errors in forecasting
  • Haldane: Forecast errors since Brexit are nothing like the scale made before the crisis
  • We have not fundamentally changed our long-run view of the impact of Brexit says BOE's Haldane
  • OPEC compliance in Jan was over 90% says Barkindo
  • We are still far way from the equilibrium price of oil says Barkindo
  • Euro under the cosh with USD and JPY demand notable
  • The ForexLive Q&A is still open
  • Option expiries for the 10 am NY cut today 21 Feb
  • Nikkei 225 closes up +0.68% at 19,381.44

Data:

  • France January HICP final mm -0.3% vs -0.2% exp
  • Eurozone Markit February mftg PMI flash 55.5 vs 55.0 exp
  • Germany Markit/BME February mftg PMI flash 57.0 vs 56.0 exp
  • France Markit February mftg PMI flash 52.3 vs 53.5 exp
  • January 2017 UK PSNB -9.8bn vs -14.00bn exp m/m
  • Switzerland January trade balance CHF +4.73bln vs +2.69bln prev
  • Japan January nationwide department store sales -1.2% vs -1.7% prev
  • Japan January supermarket sales yy -1.6% vs -2.0% prev

It's been a busy session that seen the euro weaken, yen strengthen but with USD gains across the board.

Seems like the world and his Mum is waiting/hoping for a break of ranges but it's not happening at the moment and unlikely to anytime soon ( there you go, guaranteed to bust out soon!).

Political uncertainties continue to be the prime mover with European elections in the spotlight and this morning the euro has ignored good PMI flash data to head on a universal trip lower. EURUSD has posted 1.0533 from 1.0590, EURGBP 0.8475 from 0.8515 and EURJPY 119.64 from 120.25.

USDJPY meanwhile retreated back through 113.50 only to run into general USD demand and then rally to post 113.77 just ahead of decent offers/res between 113.80-114.00 and yen demand has been notable again. GBPJPY selling has undermined the pound with GBPUSD also retreating steadily to 1.2404 lows as I type with EURGBP also finding dip-demand.

Nothing much in the latest BOE/TSC game of tag. Tighter monetary policy down the road perhaps but nothing that's had the hawks circling over pound pairs.

AUDUSD has tested 0.7650 on USD demand/AUDJPY supply combo and similarly USDCAD has been underpinned albeit in a tight 1.3130-60 range.

Equities started out a little wobbly with the FTSE 100 posting early losses on the back of awful HSBS annual accounts. While that exchange has struggled to recover others in Europe have fared better with a weaker euro/stronger equity correlation notable again.

US mftg PMI, GDT auction and a couple of Fed talking heads to follow should keep things ticking over nicely as NA desks return from a long w-e.