Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 01 April 2015

  • Daiwa: Weak Tankan could prompt expectations for additional BOJ easing measures
  • China - signs of employment slide could trigger further policy support
  • Japan PM Abe: Weaker yen, relaxed visa rules helped tourism in Japan
  • Bloomberg: China's Big Stock Market Rally Is Being Fueled by High-School Dropouts
  • China - HSBC China manufacturing PMI: 49.6 (vs. flash of 49.2)
  • China manufacturing PMI: 50.1 (vs. 49.7 expected)
  • Japan - Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI for March: 50.3 (vs. flash was 50.4)
  • New Zealand finance minister English: NZD may weaken against AUD when Aus economy picks up
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda - Japan steadily heading toward reaching stable 2% prices
  • More on the BOJ Tankan
  • Australia - February building approvals: -3.2% m/m (expected is -4%)
  • Goldman Sachs ... The risk of Greece exiting the eurozone is rising sharply
  • Bank of Japan Q4 Tankan survey results out now
  • Iran nuclear talks headlines on the wires
  • NZD lower - some chatter of intervention from the RBNZ during March
  • Price falls, volume bought up ....
  • Citi on the upcoming NFP ... "USDJPY downside is likely to be the trade"
  • New Zealand - QV house prices for March: +7.7% y/y (prior was +6.4%)
  • Australia - CoreLogic RP Data house prices for March: +1.4% m/m (prior was +0.3%) +
  • Deutsche Bank on US employment ... possible the economy is at full employment already
  • Australia - AIG Performance of Manufacturing index for March: 46.3 (prior was 45.4)
  • The strongest and weakest currency's for the first quarter 2015
  • Iron ore price collapse ... where does it end? 47 bucks says Westpac
  • Fed's George Says Economy Could Do With Less Fed Stimulus
  • More from Fed's George: Says economic data in Q1 impacted by weather
  • UK election latest poll - Labour 36%, Conservatives 35%
  • Fed's George comments: Its time for the Fed to talk about rates lift-off
  • US Treasury Secretary Lew: Strong dollar good for the US
  • API crude oil inventories +5.2m barrels

It was a session of significant news and comment, starting with Esther George of the Federal Reserve suggesting its time for the US central bank to talk about lifting rates. We also got market chatter of possible Reserve Bank of New Zealand NZD selling intervention in March, which is by no means an overwhelming view, but the question has been seriously raised.
We got the quarterly Bank of Japan Tankan survey results, which pretty much confirmed the slowness of the Japanese economy in Q1. USD/JPY had fallen a little from the session highs heading into the release of the results, but ticked a little lower in the immediate aftermath.
Australian building approvals and Chinese official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs were out next. The manufacturing PMI came in at a surprise reading above 50, just into expansion territory. USD/JPY (and US equities ... they copped a relative pounding for this time of the 24 hour cycle) fell soon thereafter, with some chatter in the market that the better result meant less likelihood of PBOC adding stimulus measures. This narrative was challenged soon enough, both by the release of the HSBC manufacturing PMI, which came in worse than the previous month (though not as bad as the flash last week had suggested) and also by a closer look at the data, which showed employment in China not as strong as desired. Employment is a (if not the) key goal of the administration, and signs of weakness soon impacted on market chatter, igniting suggestions of ongoing stimulus measures.
Markets had a bumpy ride. The earlier slide in USD/JPY (down 70 or so points at one stage) stabilised (after a 30 point bounce). AUD/USD was up nearly 60 points at one stage before settling 35-odd points lower (as of writing). The NZD/USD had its earlier slide fully reversed, and then some, adding 50 or so points from its lows before settling back towards the middle of the session range as I update.
GBP, EUR and CHF all gained against the USD on the session - both cable and EUR/USD are near session highs as i sign off, while USD/CHF is just below its mid point for the session.
The Iran talks broke off for the night with no further signs of resolution. Ongoing ....
Still to come ... Heads up for NZD traders - Global Dairy Trade auction in London time