Forex news for Asia trading Monday 18 January 2016

Opening prices today saw sharp moves lower for the CAD, AUD and NZD. All soon recovered and 'risk' overall had a decent session.

Monday:

  • Russian press: Russian envoy to Ukraine sees good ground for talks
  • Goldman Sachs expect a BOC rate cut this week. Also, GS comments on the CAD
  • HKMA head says there are no plans to change peg against US dollar
  • Japan - Industrial Production for November (final): -0.9% m/m (preliminary was -1%)
  • RBS on what would increase the risks of a surprise BOJ move this month
  • China GDP preview from Nomura: "growth to moderate quite sharply"
  • China Q4 GDP coming up Tuesday - 5 things to watch
  • China bonds - Concerns rising that spreading defaults, sliding yuan will spark a selloff
  • More on Iran post sanctions: "tremendous opportunities" in equities market
  • Mohamed A. El-Erian: U.S. economy weaker than expected, recession in 2016 not likely
  • China press: Xinhua says China to clean-up 'zombie' companies by 2020
  • PIMCO: US dollar bullish trend will remain intact, additional scope for yuan to weaken
  • Goldman Sachs on the Fed - risks of a hike mean March meeting is earliest
  • More on China changes to RRR rules
  • China December property prices - All China new home prices +1.6% y/y
  • China new home prices out now - also, Shanghai Comp at lowest since December 2014
  • People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets yuan reference rate at 6.5590
  • PBOC could issue 28-day reverse repos this week
  • Preview of this week's ECB meeting
  • JP Morgan on the BOJ - sees chance for easing in January
  • Blanchard: No evidence of a collapse in China growth
  • Here comes the yuan fix from the PBOC after weekend moves to soften CNH
  • Australia - New motor vehicle sales for December: -0.5% m/m (prior +1%)
  • BOJ's Kuroda: Annual core consumer inflation likely to hover around zero% for time being
  • Australian Treasurer Morrison orders foreign nationals to sell 8 residential properties
  • UK data - Rightmove house prices for January: 0.5% m/m (prior %)
  • China Securities Journal: State researcher sees 2016 China GDP at about 6.5%
  • Australia inflation gauge for December: 0.2% m/m (vs. 0.1% prior month)
  • Oil prices open lower in Asia morning
  • Westpac currency outlook: The rout continued
  • ANZ currency outlook: Sentiment remains in control of markets, keeps downside risks open
  • Australia nickel refinery goes into voluntary administration
  • New week, new market concerns - Move over China, here comes Iranian oil
  • China Q4 GDP due this week - early 'leak' over the weekend?
  • Trade ideas thread to start the week - Monday 18 January 2016
  • Monday morning FX: 18 January 2016 foreign exchange prices, early indications

Weekend:

  • PBOC to impose reserve ratio on offshore yuan accounts
  • Moscovici: EUR/USD exchange rate is more favorable to growth
  • Latest poll has the Brexit referendum OUT vote increasing
  • Sanctions on Iran now lifted so what's next for oil?
  • OIL - International sanctions on Iran have been lifted - watchdog confirms nuclear deal
  • How copper argues for a much deeper commodity rout
  • Intel's team 'on the ground' worried about China
  • The three S’s of trading success
  • FOMC members don't get appointed for their sense of humour
  • Brace yourself, China will be in the news again next week. Quick GDP preview.

Weekend news flow was dominated by changes from the PBOC and the formal lifting of sanctions against Iran.

The PBOC news is above in the bullets, but here also to save you searching:

  • PBOC to impose reserve ratio on offshore yuan accounts
  • Here comes the yuan fix from the PBOC after weekend moves to soften CNH
  • More on China changes to RRR rules

And, on Iran:

  • Sanctions on Iran now lifted so what's next for oil?
  • OIL - International sanctions on Iran have been lifted - watchdog confirms nuclear deal

AUD, NZD and CAD all traded lower in the early going, with 'risk' on the back foot yet again. As more markets entered and liquidity returned all three rtraced and surpassed their closing levels in the US on Friday, aming for a positive session. Much chatter of US fund selling of USD/CAD into the early spike, and the recovery of oil markets from early lows also assisted the CAD.

We had data from Australia this morning (a private inflation measure and vehicle sales) but it was to China where all eyes were focused.

The PBOC set the USD/CNY fix lower (i.e a stronger yuan) for a 7th consecutive session of CNY stability. Chinese stock markets, though, took a while to respond, opening quite weak but recovering for the balance of the morning. AUD &, NZD liked it, AUD/USD up 100 or so points from early lows while the NZD/USD stacked on 80-odd.

USD/JPY reflected the better mood, up strongly so far for the session. There is persistent sort of chatter about that the BOJ may surprise with more easing at their January meeting. I can't see it myself, but there you go.

EUR/USD edged a little lower as the mood stabilised in Asia. The CHF too lost ground.

Cable ticked off a few tic gain.

In another notable move today - iron ore futures in China traded close to limit up.

Regional equities with Shanghai closed for the lunch break:

  • Nikkei -1.67%
  • Shanghai +0.8%
  • HK -1.11%
  • ASX -0.73%

Still to come: Its a US holiday today, expect markets to trade with thinner liquidity than normal. And, don't forget, China's Q4 GDP report is tomorrow!