Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 17 November 2015

  • What drives FX rate change? EUR/USD drivers shift and change - case study
  • US CPI preview from Nomura
  • New Zealand 2yr inflation expectations data for Q4: 1.85% (prior was 1.94%)
  • Japan economy minister Amari says Abe may order an extra budget
  • Westpac on what it would take for another RBA rate cut
  • PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.3740
  • S&P revises NZ Post Ltd. outlook to 'stable' from 'negative'; rating 'A+'
  • Rubio says he would not renominate Yellen if is he was president
  • RBA Minutes: Subdued inflation may afford some scope for further easing
  • ECB's Praet: Risks to inflation expectations require stimulus review
  • NZD traders - dairy auction coming up today
  • Japan - Housing loans for Q3: +2.4% y/y (prior +2.4%)
  • More on RBA's Kent speech & comments - commodity prices, AUD
  • Australia - ANZ weekly Consumer Sentiment: 115.9 (prior 116.6)

A continuation day in Asia today.

Gains during Europe and the US for equities and the USD carried on here today. US strength was pretty much across the board, with the Asian session making fresh lows against the USD for EUR, yen, CHF, GBP and NZD.

What about the AUD, you ask? It was relatively resilient ... as i update it hasn't made a new low compared with the Europe/US session. OK, its very close to and by the time I get around to hitting 'print' on this post it may make a liar out of me. The AUD market event today was a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Kent (if the RBA had a 'chief economist, Kent would be it) and the publishing of the November monetary policy Board meeting Minutes. The Minutes painted a picture of a more upbeat Board, which further pushes back expectations for any rate cut from the bank. You can forget about December, which means February at the earliest but even that is likely to be a no unless we see some serious global economic disruption over the next 2.5 months (and no, a possible Fed rate hike in December doesn't qualify ... thats well and truly a consensus expectation now).

China concerns are lingering, and perhaps even renewed today. Copper has fallen to a 6 year low (perhaps we can soon call it undertaker copper instead of Dr. Copper?), and metals pretty much across the board weakened in Asia time again today.

Nevethless, regional equity markets bounced back, following the lead of Wall St. The energy sector was a stand-out leader.

Regional equities with Shanghai closed for the lunch break:

  • Shanghai +1.42%
  • Nikkei +1.59%
  • HK +2.09%
  • ASX +1.65%

Gold shuffled along near US session lows, oil gave back a few cents of its good sized overnight rally.

Still to come:

  • US CPI preview from Nomura
  • NZD traders - dairy auction coming up today