Forex trading news for April 21, 2015, US edition:

  • Saudi-led coalition announces end to bombing operation
  • Varoufakis: Greek and EU/IMF leaders will reach deal, there are clear signs of convergence
  • PBOC official says RRR cut not a shift of monetary policy - Xinhua
  • Fed's Rosengren says lift off may take experimentation
  • Philly Fed non-manufacturing index for April 2015 drops to 41.0 from 48.8
  • Canada Feb wholesale trade sales -0.4% vs +0.5% expected
  • Another day, another cut in rates as Hungary cuts rate to 1.8% vs 1.95% prior
  • Goldman Sachs: Higher dollar and lower commodities still haven't fully hit inflation
  • "Sell in May, and go away" Not this year says Deutsche Bank
  • Gold up $6.40 to $1202
  • WTI crude oil down $1.12 to $55.26
  • US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 1.91%
  • S&P 500 down 3 points to 2097
  • GBP leads, CAD lags

The calendar was quiet on Tuesday and that might have led to some choppy trading. The euro short up to 1.0780 from 1.0685, with about half the move coming in a straight shot at 10:30 am ET. There wasn't a single headline that drove the news but my best guess is that talk about Greece having enough liquidity to last until mid-June was the culprit. But late in the day, the most-optimistic headlines of the day hit from Varoufakis, who said a deal would probably be reached, did nothing for the euro as gains evaporated and the euro traded near-flat on the day at 1.0736.

In the second wave of US dollar selling, cable was at the vanguard as it climbed to 1.4973 from 1.4880. But traders have heard this story before and the kneejerk is to sell at ahead of 1.5000. The pair slipped back down to 1.4927.

USD/JPY rallied early to 119.83 with stock futures set for a positive open. But that was a misjudgement as stocks made the high of the day in the first ticks of trading and it was a steady decline lower. USD/JPY fell back to 119.44 before a late grind higher to 119.67.

USD/CAD was a standout performer after an early dip to 1.2220 was bought aggressively. Oil prices began to turn lower and it made a quick move up to 1.2295. A dip back to 1.2250 was followed by a second drip to 1.2305.

AUD/USD was a tricky trade. As the dollar sagged early in the day it made a very marginal session high, hitting 0.7754. Those gains erased the losses from Stevens' jawboning and the RBA minutes. It looked like a good queue to buy but there was no follow through and the US dollar found a drip of buyers in a slow slide to 0.7708.

Oil was in a chop in the $57.50 to $58.00 range for most of the day but spilled lower down to $56.12, partly on Saudi Arabia ending a bombing campaign in Yemen. That was followed by a squeeze back to $56.65 ahead of settlement.