Forex news for US trading on October 15, 2014

  • Goldman Sachs miss on Q3 earnings blaming global growth concerns
  • The good, the bad and the ugly for US inflation
  • September 2015 US CPI 0.0% vs -0.1% exp y/y
  • Empire Fed Oct manufacturing index -11.36 vs -8.0 expected
  • Weekly US initial jobless claims come in at 255K
  • The US dollar gets a stay of execution
  • Has USDJPY now got enough gas in the tank to run back higher?
  • US Treasury Sec Lew says extraordinary measures will be exhausted no later than 3rd Nov
  • Canadian home prices up 6.9% y/y in September
  • Italy's Renzi shows how much EU rules mean
  • Nasdaq opens down as the rest start brighter
  • October 2015 US Philly Fed business outlook index -4.5 vs -1.0 exp
  • Fed's Dudley and Bullard speak but don't touch on monetary policy
  • Same old same old for US manufacturing or is this time different?
  • EIA US crude oil inventories +7562k vs +2355k exp
  • Fed's Dudley says recent economic news suggests the economy is slowing
  • Stocks grab hold of good gains as we close in Europe
  • Dudley passes the Emerging Market buck onto China
  • There are risks of raising rates too early or too late says Dudley
  • Gold recovers. Up on the day now.
  • US budget surplus for September 91.1B vs 95.0B est.
  • S&P up 29.62 or 1.49%, Nasdaq up 87.253 or 1.82%
  • 2 year 0.592% +4 bp, 5 year 1.330% +6B bp, 10 year 2.016%+4 bp

Traders prepared for the US CPI, Initial jobless claims and Empire manufacturing expecting the worst. The USDJPY was trading near lows. The GBPUSD was trading near the highs.. The EURUSD was suffering on the back of earlier Nowotny comments that "additional sets of instruments are necessary.

When the data did not come out weaker (Core CPI up 0.2% vs +0.1% est and Core YoY +1.9% vs +1.8% and Initial claims at lowest level since 1973), the dollar reversed back higher. However, the price action thereafter was more back and forth for the rest of the session.

The USDJPY traded at the lowest level going back to the "Dow down 1,000 day" on August 24. The rally after the data took the price to a topside channel resistance. After holding that level at 118.77, the pair moved lower than back higher after stocks (in the NY PM) started to show more buying and the flow benefitted the JPY pairs. Topside trend line and the 50% of the days range was broken at the 118.608 and an afternoon squeeze higher began to unfold. For the day, the pair is ending higher by a few pips, but well off the lows.

The GBPUSD completed a lap in the NY session. The initial move took the pair sharply lower after the better data, Failure to put much of a dent in the huge trend move on Wednesday, gave the buyers the courage to stick a bid in ahead of the 1.5400 level. The pair rallied up to the highs of the day at 1.5508 and back above the 100 day MA at 1.5484. The pair has settled above and below the key MA level at the close and up about 10 pips from yesterday. The buyers remain in control but a move above 1.5508 is needed in the new trading day.

The EURUSD fell further after the data, but did find support against a Fibo support level at 1.1362 (38.2% support came in at 1.1357). The rally higher held below the London morning session low at 1.1423 and a late day wander lower took the pair back below the 100 hour MA at the 1.1396. In the new day, traders will be watching the 100 hour MA for resistance.

The USDCAD fell after and oil decline turned into an oil gains. The decline was slowed against trend line support at the 1.2830 level (trades at around 1.2860 at the close). The 100 hour day MA (broken today) sits at 1.2910 and will be topside resistance in the new trading day.

The NZDUSD rallied to new highs today, but stalled against the 50% of the move down from the April high. That level comes in at 0.6905. The high reached 0.6895. The price is settling the day at the 0.6850. The AUDUSD tested the 100 hour MA at 0.7354 today and stalled. This is a key level in the new day of trading. A move above and the 38.2% retracement at 0.7380 (from May high) and more upside can be expected. Then again, there should be sellers on a test first with stops on a break above...

Events/Releases in the new day:

  • It is Friday so action might be more choppy
  • NZD CPI 0.2% est. Q/Q
  • RBA Financial stability report
  • EUR Final CPI YoY -0.1%
  • US Cap Util (77.4%) and Ind Prod -0.2% est
  • JOLT Job openings
  • UofMIchigan Consumer sentiment.