Forex news and trading headlines 7 July 2015

The data

  • May 2015 US international trade balance -41.87bn vs -42.6bn exp
  • Canada May trade balance -$3.34B vs -$2.55B expected
  • IBD/TIPP July US economic optimism 48.1 vs 48.9 exp
  • June 2015 UK NIESR GDP estimate 0.7% vs 0.6% prior
  • US May JOLTS 5363K vs 5300K expected

9 hours we'll never get back

  • Malta says it's time to prepare for a well managed Greek exit
  • Greece has voted itself out of the Eurozone says ECB's Rimsevics
  • ECB could change from verbal to actual action to protect financial stability - Livesquawk
  • Greece turned up to the summit empty handed
  • It is technically impossible for Greek banks to open this week - Greek gov
  • Greece will submit new proposal 'maybe' Wednesday
  • As Latvia's Rimsevics stokes the Greek dual currency debate, is it a real possibility?
  • Tsipras to meet Merkel and Hollande in Brussels
  • Finland's Stubb says eurogroup expects an ESM program request from Greece
  • Fin Min says Russia hasn't looked into giving Greece loans
  • EU's Moscovici says there is hope for a deal with Greece
  • Greek proposal from last week is still on the table
  • Greek govt says seeking a swift agreement to restore liquidity
  • Eurogroup sums up today's meeting in a nice little package
  • Former ECB head Trichet says he's opposed to cancelling Greek debt
  • Greece proposes a short term arrangement before any viable deal
  • Tsipras tells his secret to Obama
  • Italy's Renzi says he thinks Greek deal can be found in next few hours

Other things that happened that didn't involve Greece

  • IMF sees US potential growth slowing, urges Fed to wait
  • Canada's Oliver isn't sure if they are in recession or not
  • Atlanta Fed bumps GDP forecast after trade data
  • John Hearn: "Unwinding the euro"
  • Gold spills to $1160 as commodity rout intensifies
  • The signs are pointing to a big market blow out
  • There's a trading lesson in Greece's latest bumbling
  • US EIA raises oil production estimates

Markets:

  • Gold down $15 to $1155
  • WTI crude up 64-cents to $53.20
  • S&P 500 up 10 points to 2079
  • US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 2.26%
  • USD leads, GBP lags

An early rout on Greek worries was completely erased. Fears peaked as European markets were shutting down and the Eurogroup meetings ended without a Greek proposal. But later Greece appeared to be cobbling something together and European leaders pushed for a solution.

The euro fell as low as 1.0918 in early US trading but it began to make a series of higher lows and that was the hint that sentiment was beginning to turn. It was a modest rebound until `.0970 gave way and then it quickly began to accelerate and hit 1.1050 in a squeeze. The Asian high capped the rally and EUR/USD faded back to 1.1013.

USD/JPY started US trading at 122.60 and that's where it finishes. In between, a plunge in stock markets and broad risk aversion sucked the pair down to 122.00 but it found bids there and made a slow round trip.

Cable hasn't been as fortunate as the June gains continue to evaporate. It remains close to the lows of the day and is trading at 1.5466 from 1.5600 in early European trading. US trading was a slow skid near the 1.5414 lows before a modest bounce late to 1.5465.

The commodity currencies took a beating in the early going as yesterday's oil rout initially continued and metals joined in. However, after falling below $51, crude bounced back to $53 and that sank USD/CAD to 1.2700 from 1.2770. AUD/USD also took a big bite out of the Asian declines.

Gold is an interesting case as it broke the May lows and $1150.Safe haven demand isn't materializing and it tends to fall further on bad news than it rebounds when sentiment changes. Lots of people are wondering whether oil or gold is in worse shape.