...stays below a resistance area

The US industrial production and capacity utilization barely moved the price of the USDJPY so far. That pair has been choppy in trading today but trades more near the lows after testing a topside trend line in the Asian Pacific session. At the lows, the USDJPY continues to track the 100 hour MA (blue line). The pairs has not seen an hourly bar close below that line since early in the Friday session (it currently comes in at 103.899).

The pairs trading is very confined today but sellers - if they are serious - should look to use the 104.075-104.154 as a ceiling (yellow area in the chart above). That area encompasses swing highs from Oct 6 and Oct 11, and other swing levels from Oct 12, 13 (see blue circles in the chart). The action on Friday and again today has not necessarily followed the same pattern (the price has moved above and below the yellow area). However, the last 4 hours has kept a lid on the pair against that area. It might be worth a shot selling against the area with the hope for a break below the 100 hour MA (just a trade). I am not a hurry to do something before that level. The buyers against the 100 hour MA may also make a similar play after holding that support target.

SO be patient. If the market wanders toward the 104.15 area and sellers seem to lean against it, the risk is low (not looking to risk much above the 104.15 area - 4-5 pips). The hope is the 100 hour MA can be broken, and if so, there should be further downside potential.

US equities are opening up little changed.